DEMO EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT · TIER 0 · SCAN
Weekly Operational Digest
Week of Jul 7-Jul 13, 2026 · Generated Mon Jul 14, 06:02 AM
Forecast accuracy 94.2%Pipeline live4 anomaly flags
Total Visits
267
+8.6% vs prior week
Forecast Accuracy
94.2%
MAPE 5.8% · 7-day avg
Peak Day
Tue
51 visits · +26% above baseline
Model Confidence
HIGH
Next 7-day band: P25-P75
Live
7-Day Volume Forecast
Actual (gold) · Forecast (teal) · Confidence band (shaded)
ForecastActual
Day-by-Day Summary · Week of Jul 7
| Day | Predicted | Actual | Variance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jul 7 | 41 | 43 | +2 | Within band |
| Tue Jul 8 | 46 | 51 | +5 | ↑ Elevated |
| Wed Jul 9 | 44 | 44 | 0 | On forecast |
| Thu Jul 10 | 39 | 38 | -1 | Within band |
| Fri Jul 11 | 34 | · | · | Pending |
| Sat Jul 12 | 22 | · | · | Pending |
| Sun Jul 13 | 16 | · | · | Pending |
External Signals · Week of Jul 7
Heat Wave Active (Day 4 of 5)
Temp 102°F · Analog: Aug 2025 → +16% vol · Impact +14-18%
Traffic Index Elevated
Interstate congestion index 0.82 (vs 0.61 baseline) · Impact +7%
Post-Holiday Pattern (Mon)
Jul 4 lag · confirmed in 11/13 prior occurrences · Impact +11%
ILI Activity Baseline
Flu index 2.1%, normal range, no boost · Impact ±0%
COMBINED RISK INDEX · 0.68 ELEVATED
7-Day Forward Outlook
| Window | Predicted Range | Flag |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 14-15 | 35-42 / day | Normal |
| Jul 16-17 | 44-52 / day | ↑ Watch |
| Jul 18-20 | 47-58 / day | ⚠ High Risk |
Jul 18-20 elevated, heat event + school re-entry signal active
Model Health
Forecast MAPE (7-day)5.8%
Pipeline freshness6 min ago
Next model retrainJul 31, 2026
Last week accuracy94.2%
Anomaly flags this week
Tuesday Jul 8 · Volume spike above forecast band
Actual 51 vs forecast 46 (+10.9%). Heat wave Day 3 + post-holiday pattern active simultaneously. Model underweighted combined thermal + calendar interaction. Logged for retraining.
Weekend volume tracking below seasonal baseline
Sat/Sun predicted 22/16. 4-week Sat average: 17. Consistent low-weekend pattern continues. No operational flag. Reduced weekend capacity need is consistent with this pattern.